Six programs on the decline entering this season
Our 2014-15 season preview continues with the Dagger's look at the programs who are on the decline entering the season. Check back every day for more college hoops preview content.
More from Yahoo Sports' 2014-15 Season Preview:
• Oct. 3: Eight key questions as practice begins
• Oct. 6: Preseason Top 25 with best-case and worst-case scenarios
• Oct. 7: WCC Preview: Newcomers may tighten Gonzaga's grip on the league
• Oct. 8: To become a more well-rounded player, Kyle Wiltjer changed his body and his game
• Oct. 9: Ranking the 15 transfers who can make the biggest impact
• Oct. 10: A-10 Preview: As VCU ascends, much of the league rebuilds
• Oct. 13: Atoning for last March's costly gaffe drives VCU's JeQuan Lewis.
• Oct. 14: Ten freshmen who will make the biggest impact
• Oct. 15: Mountain West Preview: Who will emerge to challenge San Diego State?
• Oct. 16: Cody Doolin could be the ideal antidote to what has ailed UNLV
• Oct. 20: Ten coaches under the most pressure to win this season
• Oct. 21: Big East Preview: To raise its stature, the league needs a big March
• Oct. 22: Chris Holtmann aims to guide Butler through period of uncertainty
• Oct. 23: The 25 most intriguing non-league games of the new season
• Oct. 24: American Athletic Conference preview: All eyes on UConn, SMU
• Oct. 27: Six teams on the rise entering the season
• Oct. 29: SEC Preview: League's reputation will only improve if its second tier does
• Oct. 31: Why a Division III team may offer the blueprint for Kentucky's platoon system
• Nov. 2: Six teams on the decline entering the season
Arizona State (21-12, 10-8): The three players most responsible for Arizona State's return to the NCAA tournament last March are all long gone as standout point guard Jahii Carson turned pro after his sophomore season and high-scoring wing Jermaine Marshall and shot-swatting 7-footer Jordan Bachynski graduated. What's left is a team in transition as Herb Sendek tries to mold a mix of returning role players, incoming freshmen and junior college transfers into a team capable of cracking the upper half of the Pac-12 for a second straight season. The player most likely to emerge as Arizona State's leader and top scoring threat is McKissic, a 6-foot-5 senior who seldom turns the ball over and can knock down threes or score off the dribble. The 6-foot-7 Gilling is a skilled stretch forward who should also shoulder a greater offensive load, while 6-foot-4 Bo Barnes brings outside shooting and energy. Besides them, it's likely mostly up to the newcomers. Freshman Tra Holder and junior college transfer Gerry Blakes are the potential heir apparents to Carson at point guard, UNLV transfer Savon Goodman is a 6-foot-6 physical specimen who should provide much-needed strength and athleticism and junior college standouts Willie Atwood and Roosevelt Scott also will have chances to contribute. The lone returning big man is 6-foot-10 Eric Jacobsen, who averaged a modest 2.4 points and 2.3 rebounds behind Bachynski last season. It's possible the newcomers excel, McKissic emerges as a go-to threat and the Sun Devils prove cohesive enough to make me look silly for suggesting a decline is imminent. There's an awful lot that will have to go right, however, for Arizona State to contend for another NCAA bid.
Creighton (27-8, 14-4 last year): Between the all-around brilliance of national player of the year Doug McDermott and the stable of outside shooters that surrounded him, Creighton boasted one of the nation's most efficient offenses last season. McDermott and Ethan Wragge sank 206 of the Bluejays' national-leading 356 3-pointers and opened up driving lanes for guards Austin Chatman and Devin Brooks by forcing opposing big men to guard them on the perimeter. For Creighton to avoid taking a huge step backward this season now that McDermott and fellow starters Wragge, Grant Gibbs and Jahenns Manigat have graduated, the Bluejays will have to develop a new offensive identity. Chatman, the Bluejays' lone returning starter, should thrive as a scorer and distributor at point guard, but he'll need complementary weapons to emerge. Brooks must be more consistent as a wing scorer off the dribble, Isaiah Zierden, Avery Dingman and Ricky Kreklow must help replace the outside shooting Creighton lost and big men Will Artino, Zach Hanson and Toby Hegner must provide some frontcourt scoring and the rebounding and interior defense the Bluejays often lacked last season. If Chatman makes a successful transition from complementary scorer to go-to threat and other players emerge in support of him, Creighton has a shot to return to the NCAA tournament this season. If not, the Bluejays could easily finish in the lower third of the balanced Big East and miss the postseason altogether.
New Mexico (27-7, 15-3): By themselves, Cameron Bairstow, Alex Kirk and Kendall Williams accounted for 67.4 percent of New Mexico's scoring last season and more than 50 percent of the Lobos' rebounds and assists. That explains why the departure of that trio has cast doubt on whether New Mexico can win either the Mountain West regular season or conference tournament crown for the sixth time in seven years. For the Lobos to contend, their returning perimeter players must evolve from complementary weapons into top scoring threats. Hugh Greenwood, New Mexico's starting point guard last season, will play off ball more frequently this season and must look for his own shot after being content to take a backseat to others in years past. The Lobos also need sophomore combo guard Cullen Neal to cut down on his turnovers and play with the consistency he lacked last season when appendicitis waylaid him in the preseason and caused him to lose 20 pounds. DeShawn Delaney should be a defensive menace at the other wing spot, but it would help if he and top freshman Sam Logwood can provide some scoring with their ability to attack the rim. New Mexico needs its perimeter players to supply that scoring because it's unclear what the Lobos can expect offensively from their big men. Seven-foot-1 center Obij Aget, hulking 250-pound junior college transfer J.J. N'Ganga and former bench warmer Devon Williams each are pretty raw and won't come close to matching the production of Kirk and Bairstow. Thus the Lobos will probably go as far as its perimeter players can carry them this season. A top-two finish in the Mountain West is conceivable, but matching last season's accomplishments is a long shot.
Oregon (24-10, 10-8): Having reached the NCAA tournament for a second straight season and come within a few defensive stops of back-to-back Sweet 16s, Oregon appeared to be trending upward last March. Then the Ducks endured a nightmarish offseason that decimated their roster and reputation and left their head coach on tenuous ground. Starters Dominic Artis and Damyean Dotson and heralded Providence transfer Brandon Austin were dismissed from school this past spring in the wake of rape allegations that eventually produced no charges. Five seniors graduated, sophomore forward Ben Carter transferred and top recruits JaQuan Lyle and Ray Kasongo failed to qualify academically. The result is that Oregon will return only three scholarship players from last season: All-conference guard Joseph Young, forward Elgin Cook and seldom-used Jalil Abdul-Bassit, the latter two of which tainted the program's reputation further when they were cited for shoplifting last month. How far Oregon will fall after so much roster turnover will depend on whether Young remains one of the top players in the conference and whether some of the newcomers mature quickly enough around him. Heralded 6-foot-10 junior college transfer Michael Chandler is Oregon's only big man with legitimate size and presence in the paint. Freshmen Casey Benson and Ahmaad Rorie should both contribute at point guard, while 6-foot-7 junior college transfer Dwayne Benjamin and 6-foot-6 incoming freshman Dillon Brooks both should make an impact alongside Young at wing.
Saint Louis (27-7, 13-3 last year): After riding timely offense and physical defense to a combined 55 wins and back-to-back Atlantic 10 titles the past two seasons, Saint Louis is due for a fall. All five starters from last season are gone including conference player of the year Jordair Jett and all-league forward Dwayne Evans, leaving this year's Billikens without a single double-digit scorer returning and with just four upperclassmen including Villanova transfer Achraf Yacoubou. A team that must replace 75 percent of its offense almost certainly won't defend its league title or even contend for the Atlantic 10 crown, but the Billikens still could exceed modest preseason expectations. The player that must emerge as a go-to scoring threat for the Billikens is probably 5-foot-9 point guard Austin McBroom, who averaged 7.3 points and dished out 56 assists last year as the first guard off the bench. Seniors John Manning and Grandy Glaze will be counted on for leadership, defense and rebounding and some timely interior scoring. And a six-member freshman class highlighted by combo guard Myles Reynolds will need to make an immediate impact.
Syracuse (28-6, 14-4 last year): Two years ago, Syracuse made a surprise Final Four appearance despite losing four of its six leading scorers from the previous season. Last year, the Orange started 25-0 and ascended to No. 1 in the nation despite having to replace their three top guards from the year before. So why would anyone assume a dropoff is inevitable for Syracuse this season after the Orange lost leading scorers Tyler Ennis, C.J. Fair and Jerami Grant? Perhaps it's because those were the top scorers from a team that already struggled to put points on the board late last season. The only-double digit scorer Syracuse brings back is senior Trevor Cooney, a shooting guard who gets his points mostly off catch-and-shoot opportunities. Defensive-minded big man Rakeem Christmas could become a bigger focal point offensively this season, but the players with the best chance of evolving into the catalysts Syracuse desperately needs are decorated freshmen Kaleb Joseph and Chris McCullough. Joseph, the only true point guard on the roster, is the obvious candidate to inherit the starting job from the ultra-efficient Ennis. McCullough, a 6-foot-10 forward rated Rivals.com's No. 19 prospect, is a raw but athletic big man who runs the floor exceptionally, finishes in transition with aplomb and excels at crashing the offensive and defensive glass. Is that a strong enough nucleus to return to the NCAA tournament and finish in the upper half of the loaded ACC? Probably. Can that group keep Syracuse in the top 10 nationally and in contention for an ACC crown? Doubtful.
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
